Renal biopsy collagen I mRNA predicts scarring in rabbit anti-GBM disease: comparison with conventional measures.

Progressive loss of normal structure associated with scarring is the hallmark of chronic diseases of most organs. To test the hypothesis that measurement of interstitial collagen mRNA levels would be a useful index to predict future scarring, we developed an assay to quantitate alpha 1(I) procollagen mRNA factored for GAPDH mRNA using RT-PCR (the "CI:G ratio"). We first defined conditions under which the assay could be used for analysis of renal biopsy samples. The CI:G ratio was then used to determine whether mRNA measurements performed at an early stage of inflammation (day 7) in a model of anti-GBM disease in the rabbit would predict outcome at day 30 as measured by interstitial and glomerular scarring and renal cortical hydroxyproline accumulation. The predictive value of this assay was compared to functional (serum creatinine and urine protein:creatinine ratio) and histologic (glomerular and interstitial scoring) parameters also measured at day 7. We found that the CI:G ratio alone provided a sensitive and discriminating assay over a wide range of renal injury that predicted various parameters of scarring with an average coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.69. This predictive power was higher than that found for conventional measures, which tended to have good discriminatory capacity over limited ranges of renal injury. The CI:G ratio provided significant additional predictive power over and above that available from combinations of conventional functional or histologic parameters. We conclude that measurement of the CI:G ratio in biopsy samples deserves further assessment as a potentially useful quantitative predictor of outcome that could lead to improved clinical decision-making.