Predictors of stroke - associated mortality in Africans.

BACKGROUND

The objective of the study was to examine the association of the stroke-related mortality with gender, age, ethnicity, social class, blood pressure, fibrinogen, selected clinical data and meteorologic parameters in hospitalized Africans.

METHODS

A series of 1032 consecutively hospitalized incident cases of acute stroke between 1987 and 1991 was studied. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to estimate the risk (odds ratio=OR) of stroke mortality for meteorologic parameters on the month before the accident onset and selected sociodemophysiological variables on the day of admission.

RESULTS

The variables significantly associated with stroke mortality in multivariate analysis were male sex (OR= 2.3 [1.3 - 4.1]), low social class (OR= 2.0 [1.2 - 4.0]), migrant tribes (OR= 1.7 [1.5 - 1.8]), ischemic stroke (OR= 1.4 [1.2 - 1.6]), heart rate >=100 bpm (OR= 1.1 [1.0 - 1.2]), age > or =60 years (OR= 1.03 [1.01 - 1.06]), systolic blood pressure> 160 mmHg (OR= 1. 02 [1.01 - 1.03]), and fibrinogen > or =400 mg/dl (OR= 1.01 [1.002 - 1. 02]). However, diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and global radiation< 340 Cal/cm(2)/day were significantly (p< 0.05) and inversely associated with stroke mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that male sex, older age, low social class, migration, ischemic stroke and higher baseline levels of heart rate, systolic blood pressure and fibrinogen are significant predictors of stroke mortality, but lower global radiation and higher diastolic blood pressure are inversely linked.